Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
Ada satu persoalan yang saya fikirkan setelah melihat kepada beberapa minggu lepas harga emas telah meningkat pada kadar tertinggi semasa dan terus naik seperti pendakian yang hampir tidak terganggu: Adakah saya perlu membeli emas sekarang? (Hmmmmm..........)
Ia difahami, terutama bagi orang-orang yang tidak memiliki logam berharga lagi. Tiada siapa yang mahu menjadi orang tolol yang membeli emas di atas, hanya untuk menonton is turun kembali US$ 1200 atau di bawah. Tetapi di sini ada beberapa fakta untuk pemikiran-
Dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS) memecahkan sejarah rendah berbanding dengan mata wang seperti Franc Swiss, Dolar Australia, dan dolar Singapura. Mana-mana mata wang yang bukan bencana yang lengkap kini dilihat sebagai tempat yang selamat. Dan dunia arus perdana kini, akhirnya, bangun dengan realiti bahawa Amerika Syarikat sebenarnya mungkin lalai.
Janganlah berasa hairan bahawa sebuah kerajaan yang insolven selama bertahun-tahun sedang bukti itu boleh dilihat dengan meluas oleh sesiapa sahaja yang dapat mengenalpasti fakta-fakta asas. Secara literal, hanya pada minggu lepas orang akhirnya mula mempertimbangkan kemungkinan Amerika Syarikat akan gagal membayar hutangnya.
Di Eropah, keadaan boleh dikatakan lebih teruk. Tiada siapa yang tidak tahu keaadan di Greece, ia dibincangkan secara terbuka oleh pembuat dasar, dan institusi kewangan utama telah menyediakan bagi penyusunan semula. Dan dengan hutang awam lebih daripada 120% daripada KDNK, Itali pula tidak jauh ketinggalan.
Pada zaman inin sesebuah Kerajaan tidak lagi mempunyai manfaat beroperasi di sebalik tabir; defisitkewangan dan insolvensi teknikal mereka kini di bawah perhatian umum untuk dilihat oleh semua ... dan keyakinan semakin pudar dengan cepat.
Lebih ramai orang yang kehilangan keyakinan terhadap dolar dan euro, lebih banyak mereka mencari alternatif. Ini adalah sebab utama mengapa begitu banyak mata wang yang lebih kecil melonjak. Berbanding dengan dolar dan euro, franc Switzerland kelihatan sangat selamat, dan pengurus wang mempunyai keyakinan bahawa bon Swiss mereka akan dibayar balik daripada bon bon di Amerika Syarikat atau zon euro.
Aliran modal yang lebih ke dalam mata wang yang lebih kecil menjadi lebih banyak. Orang ramai akan lebih menghargai mereka berbanding dolar dan euro. Ia adalah rasional yang mudah bekalan dan peningkatan permintaan. Permintaan terhadap Franc Switzerland yang ditambah dengan bekalan melebihi dolar AS di pasaran ertinya Franc yang lebih kukuh dari segi dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS).
Akhirnya, ini adalah sebab utama emas akan pergi lebih tinggi dalam jangka masa panjang.
Institusi kewangan semakin melihat emas sebagai tempat yang selamat, ia menjadi kurang spekulasi dan ia juga menjadi rezab nilai ... dan tidak seperti kebanyakan kelas aset lain yang ada, logam berharga seperti emas tidak sensitif dari segi politik.
Tetapi jika emas pergi ke $ 2,000 ... $ 3,000 ..., ia boleh memalukan kepada bank-bank pusat, tetapi ia tidak akan menjadi isu populis. Anda tidak akan melihat mana-mana pedagang Tunisia menetapkan diri mereka dibakar kerana harga emas terlalu tinggi ... dan tidak terlalu ramai ahli politik yang mencari-cari untuk menetapkan harga.
Walaupun mereka cuba untuk mengawal harga emas atau malah menjadikan ia menyalahi undang-undang, anda boleh yakin bahawa perdagangan emas akan terus berkembang maju di seluruh dunia terutama di Asia dan Timur Tengah.
Jadi daripada bimbang tentang pembelian emas pada paras tertinggi dalam keaadaan semasa, tanya diri anda satu soalan lain: Sejak beberapa tahun akan datang, adakah anda menjangka sesebuah kerajaan bankrap akan membangkitkan keyakinan di kalangan pelabur institusi, atau adakah anda fikir keyakinan terhadap mereka akan terus terhakis?
Jika anda condong ke arah kedua, anda boleh yakin bahawa lebih banyak wang akan mengalir ke dalam emas, dan harga akan naik.
Ya, akan ada turun naik harga. Apabila kerajaan AS mengumumkan bahawa ia telah akhirnya mencapai perjanjian hutang, mungkin akan ada pembetulan. Memandangkan apa yang datang dalam beberapa bulan akan datang dan tahun-mengerdilkan hutang, lebih banyak perdebatan bajet, penutupan kerajaan, pembekuan aset, dan sebagainya, apa-apa pembetulan adalah blip kecil di sepanjang satu garis trend jangka panjang.
Dan jika anda masih bimbang yang anda akan menjadi orang tolol untuk membeli emas pada paras sekarang US$ 1600, pertimbangkan bahawa, jika anda tidak membeli sekarang, dalam tempoh tiga tahun anda mungkin akan berasa seperti orang tolol untuk tidak membeli emas pada paras US$ 1600 semasa anda masih mempunyai peluang. Sejarah pergerakan harga emas telah membuktikan yang corak pergerakan harga emas hanya menunjukan corak yang menaik apabila di bandingkan dengan nilai wang fiat(apa-apa nota [wang]yang diisytiharkan oleh kerajaan untuk menjadi tukaran nilai sah) sejak turun temurun .(Hmmmmmmmm....fikir-fikirlah sendiri)
EMAS-KLASIK
Friday 29 July 2011
Thursday 28 July 2011
How a dollar default would change gold/silver market ....
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
How a dollar default would change gold/silver market
A technical default by the U.S., which is drawing ever closer, will have serious consequences for the global economy with gold and silver becoming the preferred reserve assets.
Author: Julian Phillips
Posted: Wednesday , 27 Jul 2011
BENONI -
Last Friday we were led to believe that the debt-ceiling crisis would be over by the start of Asia's business on Monday. The weekend has gone and so the deal. The markets are very nervous and beginning to worry that a deal will not be made. This is merely a political game to earn a name because one or the other gives-in first. But the two leaders represent national parties and not themselves; therefore, the sensitivity needed to back down just in time isn't there. The structure of politics doesn't allow it. Not only that, but it takes a few days to implement the ceiling change.
Are we now certain to see a default by the U.S. government?
If so just what will that mean to precious metals?
THE OVERALL CONSEQUENCES
Bear in mind that the U.S. is not the hub of the global gold market. In fact, in terms of jewelry, bar and coin demand, the entire North America is only responsible for 8% of global demand. Europe and Russia is responsible for another 13%. In other words, these markets are not driven by the financial affairs of the developed world.
The developed world is responsible for the provision of the distribution networks and the markets of the gold world. Physical supplies primarily come into London and bullion banks, sent from the refineries that refined gold and silver, which the mines supply. Then the bullion banks -mainly through the London gold Fixing-supply investors, manufacturers, industry and central banks with the gold they want.
The developed world also provides the speculators and traders who are constantly dealing either in gold itself, shares of gold Exchange Traded Funds, or in the financial derivatives that can influence the gold price.
It is the global speculators and investors that have the most dramatic affect on the prices, but their effect is primarily short to medium term. The daily pressures these professional have on the market have a similar effect as the immediate waves do at the seashore. There is a constant ebb-and-flow of prices, because a price rarely, if ever, goes straight up. Where there are seasonal flows of demand and supply these have the same impact as the daily tidal changes on the sea shore. But the most dominant price pressures come from forces similar to the currents in the sea. A look at a long-term price chart shows the sum total of all these pressures on prices. In both the silver and gold markets, these flows are far more complex than a simple commodity.
For instance, the effect of the debt ceiling impasse had on the gold and silver price today had nothing to do with the gold or silver fundamentals, but on the threat to financial stability and the U.S. dollar. Precious metals act as a counter to the main cash and currency markets; therefore, we have to take a look at the sum total of the influences on the gold and silver prices, not just the short-term speculative ones. These are simple and clear -gold and silver prices have been reflecting the uncertainty and instability of the currency worlds and the undermining of the value of paper currencies.
In the Far East there has never been that kind of trust in paper money systems. In the developed world there has been absolute trust in paper money systems; however, this century we have witnessed a decline in this trust, which accelerated from the first point of impact of the credit crunch. This decline has widened and deepened since then, as it progressed from the banking system across to European sovereign debt problems and now is a victim of political ploys in the U.S. The most disturbing aspect of this degeneration is that the problems have not been rectified properly, leaving national economies wallowing in or close to stagflation. With the buying power of currencies waning in the hands of people who cannot do anything about raising their incomes, the loss of confidence is moving towards desperation. With no sight of political or monetary reform, the instability and uncertainty we are witnessing is becoming deeply entrenched.
It is strange that the least sophisticated parts of the world have the greatest appreciation of the value of precious metals. It is also strange that the most sophisticated sides of the world are taking so long to recognize the dangers facing the present monetary system. We are caught up in what is a "normal" money system that we deny the dangers because they threaten our "normality".
Aren't we capable enough to put matters right when necessary?
So why are they getting worse?
Against this backdrop, we can now see that the main impact of a default by the U.S. would be a further fracture in the developed world monetary system, pressuring investors to seek alternatives over the long term. This damage will not be repairable.
v One of these long-term consequences will be the acceleration of the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan, so that China reduces its vulnerability to the undermining of the dollar, internationally.
v Another consequence will be the long-term diversification of national assets out of the U.S. dollar to incorporate a broad spectrum of other currencies and government bonds.
v Stagflation or worse will be another global consequence.
v Over time there may be a far greater fragmentation of the global economy, leading at worse to Protectionism and Exchange Controls.
THE SPECIFIC CONSEQUENCES
By specific we mean immediate to medium (up to 1 year) consequences. With the Eurozone crisis so fresh in our minds, the consequences seen there can act as our guide. The main difference is that instead of member nations being the problem, the equivalent of the Eurozone itself is the indecisive problem -the U.S. government itself. The consequences that flow out from the U.S. become more dramatic for that reason.
1. A significant weakening of the U.S. dollar is the first hard blow to be felt globally.
2. The second is the impact on the currency world, in total, as currencies whose economies cannot afford to see their currencies strengthen further take action to weaken them. Take the Yen, for instance. Earlier this year, the Bank of Japan intervened to weaken the Yen as its economy reeled from the tragedies that struck it and the diminution of international trade because of the strength of the Yen. The Swiss Franc is in the same boat. Previously it also acted to weaken its currency to support local exports; however, each nation favors one or the other major blocs (Europe or the U.S.) and so manages its currency against that major currency. For instance you will see the South African Rand move against the Euro and not the U.S. dollar. If the euro is strong then the Rand will be strong. Expect a solidifying of these relationships perhaps to the exclusion of others.
3. The third impact is that interest rates will rise in the U.S. and weaken the bond (Treasury) markets. If this holds then we will see the next major financial crisis in the U.S. Treasury markets just as we saw it in the more dubious members of the Eurozone.
4. Rising interest rates undermine equity markets, house prices and in turn the overall economy. With such low growth rates in the States already we would expect deflation to take hold.
5. With energy and food inflation already high, add deflation to the formula and unemployment rates will rise alongside the weakening economy.
6. Asset values will fall.
7. The only assets that will rise inside the U.S. are those that act both as cash and assets, internationally, namely precious metals. With emerging nation's demand for precious metals already rising unstoppably, the addition of developed world safe-haven demand will keep precious metals rising to new levels as the world adjusts to an economic climate that is destructive to the developed world and at the same time will favor the developing world.
We are describing a global economic climate that the world has not seen before. In the past when such pressures have arisen they have led to wars. Today's pressures cannot be fought over. Where battles can occur is in the financial and economic areas of life. Such battles are called "Protectionism", "Currency Wars" and there are few winners in such wars. These wars lead to global fragmentation and distrust.
Internationally, precious metals will become the preferred reserve assets, not just an important one. Their prices will then relate more closely to the total volumes of each international currency in the world. As you can imagine, the prices of precious metals will then have to be higher than most people even thought possible. With the gold market being such a small one in volume terms, silver will then become a monetary metal too, at considerably higher prices.
Julian Phillips is a long time specialist analyst of the gold and silver markets and is the principal contributor to the Gold Forecaster - www.goldforecaster.com - and Silver Forecaster- www.silverforecaster.com - websites and newsletters
How a dollar default would change gold/silver market
A technical default by the U.S., which is drawing ever closer, will have serious consequences for the global economy with gold and silver becoming the preferred reserve assets.
Author: Julian Phillips
Posted: Wednesday , 27 Jul 2011
BENONI -
Last Friday we were led to believe that the debt-ceiling crisis would be over by the start of Asia's business on Monday. The weekend has gone and so the deal. The markets are very nervous and beginning to worry that a deal will not be made. This is merely a political game to earn a name because one or the other gives-in first. But the two leaders represent national parties and not themselves; therefore, the sensitivity needed to back down just in time isn't there. The structure of politics doesn't allow it. Not only that, but it takes a few days to implement the ceiling change.
Are we now certain to see a default by the U.S. government?
If so just what will that mean to precious metals?
THE OVERALL CONSEQUENCES
Bear in mind that the U.S. is not the hub of the global gold market. In fact, in terms of jewelry, bar and coin demand, the entire North America is only responsible for 8% of global demand. Europe and Russia is responsible for another 13%. In other words, these markets are not driven by the financial affairs of the developed world.
The developed world is responsible for the provision of the distribution networks and the markets of the gold world. Physical supplies primarily come into London and bullion banks, sent from the refineries that refined gold and silver, which the mines supply. Then the bullion banks -mainly through the London gold Fixing-supply investors, manufacturers, industry and central banks with the gold they want.
The developed world also provides the speculators and traders who are constantly dealing either in gold itself, shares of gold Exchange Traded Funds, or in the financial derivatives that can influence the gold price.
It is the global speculators and investors that have the most dramatic affect on the prices, but their effect is primarily short to medium term. The daily pressures these professional have on the market have a similar effect as the immediate waves do at the seashore. There is a constant ebb-and-flow of prices, because a price rarely, if ever, goes straight up. Where there are seasonal flows of demand and supply these have the same impact as the daily tidal changes on the sea shore. But the most dominant price pressures come from forces similar to the currents in the sea. A look at a long-term price chart shows the sum total of all these pressures on prices. In both the silver and gold markets, these flows are far more complex than a simple commodity.
For instance, the effect of the debt ceiling impasse had on the gold and silver price today had nothing to do with the gold or silver fundamentals, but on the threat to financial stability and the U.S. dollar. Precious metals act as a counter to the main cash and currency markets; therefore, we have to take a look at the sum total of the influences on the gold and silver prices, not just the short-term speculative ones. These are simple and clear -gold and silver prices have been reflecting the uncertainty and instability of the currency worlds and the undermining of the value of paper currencies.
In the Far East there has never been that kind of trust in paper money systems. In the developed world there has been absolute trust in paper money systems; however, this century we have witnessed a decline in this trust, which accelerated from the first point of impact of the credit crunch. This decline has widened and deepened since then, as it progressed from the banking system across to European sovereign debt problems and now is a victim of political ploys in the U.S. The most disturbing aspect of this degeneration is that the problems have not been rectified properly, leaving national economies wallowing in or close to stagflation. With the buying power of currencies waning in the hands of people who cannot do anything about raising their incomes, the loss of confidence is moving towards desperation. With no sight of political or monetary reform, the instability and uncertainty we are witnessing is becoming deeply entrenched.
It is strange that the least sophisticated parts of the world have the greatest appreciation of the value of precious metals. It is also strange that the most sophisticated sides of the world are taking so long to recognize the dangers facing the present monetary system. We are caught up in what is a "normal" money system that we deny the dangers because they threaten our "normality".
Aren't we capable enough to put matters right when necessary?
So why are they getting worse?
Against this backdrop, we can now see that the main impact of a default by the U.S. would be a further fracture in the developed world monetary system, pressuring investors to seek alternatives over the long term. This damage will not be repairable.
v One of these long-term consequences will be the acceleration of the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan, so that China reduces its vulnerability to the undermining of the dollar, internationally.
v Another consequence will be the long-term diversification of national assets out of the U.S. dollar to incorporate a broad spectrum of other currencies and government bonds.
v Stagflation or worse will be another global consequence.
v Over time there may be a far greater fragmentation of the global economy, leading at worse to Protectionism and Exchange Controls.
THE SPECIFIC CONSEQUENCES
By specific we mean immediate to medium (up to 1 year) consequences. With the Eurozone crisis so fresh in our minds, the consequences seen there can act as our guide. The main difference is that instead of member nations being the problem, the equivalent of the Eurozone itself is the indecisive problem -the U.S. government itself. The consequences that flow out from the U.S. become more dramatic for that reason.
1. A significant weakening of the U.S. dollar is the first hard blow to be felt globally.
2. The second is the impact on the currency world, in total, as currencies whose economies cannot afford to see their currencies strengthen further take action to weaken them. Take the Yen, for instance. Earlier this year, the Bank of Japan intervened to weaken the Yen as its economy reeled from the tragedies that struck it and the diminution of international trade because of the strength of the Yen. The Swiss Franc is in the same boat. Previously it also acted to weaken its currency to support local exports; however, each nation favors one or the other major blocs (Europe or the U.S.) and so manages its currency against that major currency. For instance you will see the South African Rand move against the Euro and not the U.S. dollar. If the euro is strong then the Rand will be strong. Expect a solidifying of these relationships perhaps to the exclusion of others.
3. The third impact is that interest rates will rise in the U.S. and weaken the bond (Treasury) markets. If this holds then we will see the next major financial crisis in the U.S. Treasury markets just as we saw it in the more dubious members of the Eurozone.
4. Rising interest rates undermine equity markets, house prices and in turn the overall economy. With such low growth rates in the States already we would expect deflation to take hold.
5. With energy and food inflation already high, add deflation to the formula and unemployment rates will rise alongside the weakening economy.
6. Asset values will fall.
7. The only assets that will rise inside the U.S. are those that act both as cash and assets, internationally, namely precious metals. With emerging nation's demand for precious metals already rising unstoppably, the addition of developed world safe-haven demand will keep precious metals rising to new levels as the world adjusts to an economic climate that is destructive to the developed world and at the same time will favor the developing world.
We are describing a global economic climate that the world has not seen before. In the past when such pressures have arisen they have led to wars. Today's pressures cannot be fought over. Where battles can occur is in the financial and economic areas of life. Such battles are called "Protectionism", "Currency Wars" and there are few winners in such wars. These wars lead to global fragmentation and distrust.
Internationally, precious metals will become the preferred reserve assets, not just an important one. Their prices will then relate more closely to the total volumes of each international currency in the world. As you can imagine, the prices of precious metals will then have to be higher than most people even thought possible. With the gold market being such a small one in volume terms, silver will then become a monetary metal too, at considerably higher prices.
Julian Phillips is a long time specialist analyst of the gold and silver markets and is the principal contributor to the Gold Forecaster - www.goldforecaster.com - and Silver Forecaster- www.silverforecaster.com - websites and newsletters
Tuesday 26 July 2011
What are record gold prices telling us now?
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
Petikan komen untuk maklumat dan pertimbangan pedoman.
What are record gold prices telling us now?
It is now the heart of the northern summer doldrums period for the gold price yet it is riding at record highs. What is this telling us about the state of the global economy?
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Monday , 25 Jul 2011
LONDON -
Gold ended the week at a little over $1600 an ounce after a brief markdown following the EU's latest fudge over Greek sovereign debt. Overnight in Asia it moved upwards further hitting yet new records of above $1620 an ounce before coming off a little as Europe opened and has been strengthening again as this is being written. To this observer that signifies that investors do not believe the European crisis, which could rapidly affect other countries in the Eurozone too, and then spread to firstly the European banking system and then knock-on globally, is anywhere near played out. As analysts pored over the Greek rescue plan they began to see major holes in the financial package and its logic and we could yet see the whole house of cards come crashing down.
The supposed avoidance of a Greek default - which the ratings agencies are already saying is still a technical default whatever the Eurozone politicians and central bankers may claim - seems illusory. The latest attempt to muddle through in the hope that the avoidance of a full Greek default by September (which had been on the cards) will give everyone a bit more time and, with a lot of luck that the full financial catastrophe will be avoided, is not being fully believed by the markets.
But if we look at things rationally, Greece is an out and out financial basket case. Its citizens are fighting the proposed austerity measures in the streets and the feeling there is that default, withdrawal from the single currency and devaluation of the resurrected drachma is the lesser of the evils facing the population. Can the Greek government survive to actually implement the IMF/ECB imposed austerity measures given the strength of popular feeling against them?
And it doesn't end here. Portugal and Ireland are not in a much better state as far as sovereign debt is concerned and if the financial world turns on these weak economies, they would soon have to follow the same path as Greece - and then could Spain and Italy, with economies many times bigger than the three Euro minnows, be next in line?
Maybe we can pin the whole Euro crisis on Germany, although its citizens don't see it that way. Germany has been the principal beneficiary of the Eurozone single currency experiment. Because of the weaker parts of the Eurozone the currency itself has been kept from rising too far and too fast against the dollar, thus helping Germany's huge export led manufacturing sector. If Germany was out there on its own its own currency would almost certainly have been rising dramatically against the dollar, thus cutting into its exports and its economic growth potential. No wonder Germany has reluctantly been supporting the weaker Eurozone nations in their efforts to stave off bankruptcy.
On the other side of the coin, German economic strength has prevented the Euro from falling as it might have done otherwise, thus exacerbating the problems facing what it sees as its profligate neighbours to the south. If all had maintained their own currencies, the weaker elements would have seen their currencies fall on world markets thus making them more and more competitive and more able to cover their debts without defaulting - but the whole bonding together of countries with strong economies and those with weak ones under a single currency has proved, in retrospect, to be a recipe for financial disaster without full financial union.
The banks too should take their share of the blame for the situation. Virtually uncontrolled lending in the first few years of the 21st Century has let countries build up their debt positions to levels from which it is almost impossible to recover. As you sow so shall you reap and the banks may now be faced with defaults on a massive scale - and many may not survive. And it won't just end with Europe. The global banking system is inextricably entwined and the whole default problem will spill over into the U.S. and elsewhere too. No wonder investors are turning to gold as a desperate last resort to preserve what they have against what they see might be coming.
Now maybe the politicians and bankers will somehow manage to stave off the seemingly inevitable, but in case not, gold is seen as the one insurance policy that may provide some protection.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic things aren't looking so good either. There is the immediate problem that unless Democrats and Republicans can come up with a compromise over extending the debt ceiling, horror of horrors the U.S. could default on its debts too. This political brinkmanship game has been going on for some time and, deep down, everyone thought, and are probably still thinking, that a compromise would be reached sooner or later. But there are now only eight days to go before D Day (default day) and there seems to be no solution yet in sight.
If D Day is actually reached without agreement, this is the wild card which could drive gold through the roof. If the world's most prosperous nation is seen to default, the global financial repercussions could be enormous. One suspects that markets have been assuming Republicans and Democrats will find it within themselves to reach agreement at the 11th hour but nothing is certain and latest rhetoric sees the two political movements as far apart on this issue as ever.
But, assuming the U.S. debt ceiling is, indeed, extended in time then this, coupled with the Greek compromise, could settle some jitters, however unjustified this may be, and gold could come back a few dollars - or even tens of dollars. However its performance Friday and this morning suggests that any setback is likely to be very shortlived.
What the U.S. debt impasse is bringing home to people is its massive size - $14.5 trillion and rising by the second - (see fascinating representation of this on www.usdebtclock.org) . This has been built up over the years and has accelerated drastically recently. No-one in their right minds thinks that this will ever be reduced to zero. To the person in the street the size of the debt is so great that it actually means nothing to them - it is beyond comprehension. They feel perhaps that the U.S. can go on running deficits of this size and higher for ever - which indeed it will probably have to - the gap between spending and income being so enormous. What the debt ceiling deficit debate is doing is bringing this to the surface and the person in the street is only now beginning to realise that this is actually a problem for the government and for the people themselves. The possibility that if the debt ceiling is not raised that social security payments are not made in August is really beginning to bring the financial mess in which the U.S. finds itself into the forefront of individuals' realisations. Is it any wonder that gold is rising? Nervousness over the financial future is beginning to rule people's minds.
But the U.S. problems do not start and end with the debt ceiling. This observer thinks that this will be raised before next Tuesday - not to do is unthinkable. And undoubtedly gold will waver when this happens. But, many of the U.S. individual States' deficits are in the same league as those of the Eurozone nations, but news of this is being swept under the carpet. Some States will be forced to renege on their debts too. State employees will be put out of work with no money available to pay them. All this will further bring home the seriousness of the situation facing America and the world. It is beginning to sink in now.
July/August is traditionally a weak time for gold. Purchasing from Asia - perhaps the main gold price driver - falls off, picking up again once festival seasons start in late Summer/early Autumn. Yet gold is standing at an all-time high as August approaches. That should indeed be telling us something. The chickens are coming home to roost and gold will continue to be the major beneficiary.
This writer was looking to see gold in the $1700s by year-end in Mineweb's January gold price competition. This is beginning to look as if it could be a very conservative prediction indeed!
Petikan komen untuk maklumat dan pertimbangan pedoman.
What are record gold prices telling us now?
It is now the heart of the northern summer doldrums period for the gold price yet it is riding at record highs. What is this telling us about the state of the global economy?
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Monday , 25 Jul 2011
LONDON -
Gold ended the week at a little over $1600 an ounce after a brief markdown following the EU's latest fudge over Greek sovereign debt. Overnight in Asia it moved upwards further hitting yet new records of above $1620 an ounce before coming off a little as Europe opened and has been strengthening again as this is being written. To this observer that signifies that investors do not believe the European crisis, which could rapidly affect other countries in the Eurozone too, and then spread to firstly the European banking system and then knock-on globally, is anywhere near played out. As analysts pored over the Greek rescue plan they began to see major holes in the financial package and its logic and we could yet see the whole house of cards come crashing down.
The supposed avoidance of a Greek default - which the ratings agencies are already saying is still a technical default whatever the Eurozone politicians and central bankers may claim - seems illusory. The latest attempt to muddle through in the hope that the avoidance of a full Greek default by September (which had been on the cards) will give everyone a bit more time and, with a lot of luck that the full financial catastrophe will be avoided, is not being fully believed by the markets.
But if we look at things rationally, Greece is an out and out financial basket case. Its citizens are fighting the proposed austerity measures in the streets and the feeling there is that default, withdrawal from the single currency and devaluation of the resurrected drachma is the lesser of the evils facing the population. Can the Greek government survive to actually implement the IMF/ECB imposed austerity measures given the strength of popular feeling against them?
And it doesn't end here. Portugal and Ireland are not in a much better state as far as sovereign debt is concerned and if the financial world turns on these weak economies, they would soon have to follow the same path as Greece - and then could Spain and Italy, with economies many times bigger than the three Euro minnows, be next in line?
Maybe we can pin the whole Euro crisis on Germany, although its citizens don't see it that way. Germany has been the principal beneficiary of the Eurozone single currency experiment. Because of the weaker parts of the Eurozone the currency itself has been kept from rising too far and too fast against the dollar, thus helping Germany's huge export led manufacturing sector. If Germany was out there on its own its own currency would almost certainly have been rising dramatically against the dollar, thus cutting into its exports and its economic growth potential. No wonder Germany has reluctantly been supporting the weaker Eurozone nations in their efforts to stave off bankruptcy.
On the other side of the coin, German economic strength has prevented the Euro from falling as it might have done otherwise, thus exacerbating the problems facing what it sees as its profligate neighbours to the south. If all had maintained their own currencies, the weaker elements would have seen their currencies fall on world markets thus making them more and more competitive and more able to cover their debts without defaulting - but the whole bonding together of countries with strong economies and those with weak ones under a single currency has proved, in retrospect, to be a recipe for financial disaster without full financial union.
The banks too should take their share of the blame for the situation. Virtually uncontrolled lending in the first few years of the 21st Century has let countries build up their debt positions to levels from which it is almost impossible to recover. As you sow so shall you reap and the banks may now be faced with defaults on a massive scale - and many may not survive. And it won't just end with Europe. The global banking system is inextricably entwined and the whole default problem will spill over into the U.S. and elsewhere too. No wonder investors are turning to gold as a desperate last resort to preserve what they have against what they see might be coming.
Now maybe the politicians and bankers will somehow manage to stave off the seemingly inevitable, but in case not, gold is seen as the one insurance policy that may provide some protection.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic things aren't looking so good either. There is the immediate problem that unless Democrats and Republicans can come up with a compromise over extending the debt ceiling, horror of horrors the U.S. could default on its debts too. This political brinkmanship game has been going on for some time and, deep down, everyone thought, and are probably still thinking, that a compromise would be reached sooner or later. But there are now only eight days to go before D Day (default day) and there seems to be no solution yet in sight.
If D Day is actually reached without agreement, this is the wild card which could drive gold through the roof. If the world's most prosperous nation is seen to default, the global financial repercussions could be enormous. One suspects that markets have been assuming Republicans and Democrats will find it within themselves to reach agreement at the 11th hour but nothing is certain and latest rhetoric sees the two political movements as far apart on this issue as ever.
But, assuming the U.S. debt ceiling is, indeed, extended in time then this, coupled with the Greek compromise, could settle some jitters, however unjustified this may be, and gold could come back a few dollars - or even tens of dollars. However its performance Friday and this morning suggests that any setback is likely to be very shortlived.
What the U.S. debt impasse is bringing home to people is its massive size - $14.5 trillion and rising by the second - (see fascinating representation of this on www.usdebtclock.org) . This has been built up over the years and has accelerated drastically recently. No-one in their right minds thinks that this will ever be reduced to zero. To the person in the street the size of the debt is so great that it actually means nothing to them - it is beyond comprehension. They feel perhaps that the U.S. can go on running deficits of this size and higher for ever - which indeed it will probably have to - the gap between spending and income being so enormous. What the debt ceiling deficit debate is doing is bringing this to the surface and the person in the street is only now beginning to realise that this is actually a problem for the government and for the people themselves. The possibility that if the debt ceiling is not raised that social security payments are not made in August is really beginning to bring the financial mess in which the U.S. finds itself into the forefront of individuals' realisations. Is it any wonder that gold is rising? Nervousness over the financial future is beginning to rule people's minds.
But the U.S. problems do not start and end with the debt ceiling. This observer thinks that this will be raised before next Tuesday - not to do is unthinkable. And undoubtedly gold will waver when this happens. But, many of the U.S. individual States' deficits are in the same league as those of the Eurozone nations, but news of this is being swept under the carpet. Some States will be forced to renege on their debts too. State employees will be put out of work with no money available to pay them. All this will further bring home the seriousness of the situation facing America and the world. It is beginning to sink in now.
July/August is traditionally a weak time for gold. Purchasing from Asia - perhaps the main gold price driver - falls off, picking up again once festival seasons start in late Summer/early Autumn. Yet gold is standing at an all-time high as August approaches. That should indeed be telling us something. The chickens are coming home to roost and gold will continue to be the major beneficiary.
This writer was looking to see gold in the $1700s by year-end in Mineweb's January gold price competition. This is beginning to look as if it could be a very conservative prediction indeed!
Sunday 24 July 2011
TREND HARGA EMAS
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
Sebelum kita tinjau tentang emas fizikal, mari kita sama2 tgk dulu trend harga emas sejak beberapa tahun yg lepas…secara overall, kite tahu harga emas ni naik, tapi bagaimana trend kenaikan ini berlaku?…pada saya, kite kena tahu trend ni supaya projection dan focus kite betul…lagi satu ialah utk memaksimakan keuntungan
Carta kat bawah ni adalah harga emas dlm RM/g bagi 2 tahun …kite boleh lihat ade trend turun dan naik, tapi secara overall bagi 2 tahun, kenaikan adalah sebanyak 59.5%
hampir semua komoditi diniagakan dalam USD…begitu juga emas…jadi ape impaknye kepada RM bile diniagakan dlm USD…Carta kat bawah ni adalah trend harga emas dlm USD/g…jika kite banding dgn carta kat atas tadi, iaitu dlm RM, tak byk beza…dan dlm 2 tahun, kenaikan adalah 53.8%
Carta yg ke-3 ni pula adalah harga emas dlm RM/g bagi 5 tahun yg lepas…tak perlu nak dijelaskan, dah terang2 selepas 5 tahun harga emas naik sehingga 149%…wowow…byk tuh kalau nak compare dgn ASB ke FD ke Bursa ke apeke...
Kesimpulan (dgn ilmu yg tak seberapa):
Nak melabur dlm emas, rasanya memang tak rugi…cuma utk jangka pendek, 3-6 bln, kena tgk trend…utk memaksimakan profit, dan supaya boleh capai sasaran utk dpt untung dlm 3-6 bln…tapi kalau nak kira jangka panjang( 1 tahun atau lebih), beli bila2 pun tak kisah, boleh beli…dah tentu naik
p/s: masalah masa trend menurun pulak tu stok emas lak kurang atau takde…samaada habis, atau kena hold. KEna pikir la sendiri.
Sebelum kita tinjau tentang emas fizikal, mari kita sama2 tgk dulu trend harga emas sejak beberapa tahun yg lepas…secara overall, kite tahu harga emas ni naik, tapi bagaimana trend kenaikan ini berlaku?…pada saya, kite kena tahu trend ni supaya projection dan focus kite betul…lagi satu ialah utk memaksimakan keuntungan
Carta kat bawah ni adalah harga emas dlm RM/g bagi 2 tahun …kite boleh lihat ade trend turun dan naik, tapi secara overall bagi 2 tahun, kenaikan adalah sebanyak 59.5%
hampir semua komoditi diniagakan dalam USD…begitu juga emas…jadi ape impaknye kepada RM bile diniagakan dlm USD…Carta kat bawah ni adalah trend harga emas dlm USD/g…jika kite banding dgn carta kat atas tadi, iaitu dlm RM, tak byk beza…dan dlm 2 tahun, kenaikan adalah 53.8%
Carta yg ke-3 ni pula adalah harga emas dlm RM/g bagi 5 tahun yg lepas…tak perlu nak dijelaskan, dah terang2 selepas 5 tahun harga emas naik sehingga 149%…wowow…byk tuh kalau nak compare dgn ASB ke FD ke Bursa ke apeke...
Kesimpulan (dgn ilmu yg tak seberapa):
Nak melabur dlm emas, rasanya memang tak rugi…cuma utk jangka pendek, 3-6 bln, kena tgk trend…utk memaksimakan profit, dan supaya boleh capai sasaran utk dpt untung dlm 3-6 bln…tapi kalau nak kira jangka panjang( 1 tahun atau lebih), beli bila2 pun tak kisah, boleh beli…dah tentu naik
p/s: masalah masa trend menurun pulak tu stok emas lak kurang atau takde…samaada habis, atau kena hold. KEna pikir la sendiri.
Thursday 21 July 2011
BILA NAK BELI EMAS?
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
Sekarang adalah musim membeli emas.
Terdapat 2 jenis pembeli emas.
Ada yang menganggapnya sebagai pelaburan, ada yang mengganggapnya sebagai simpanan.
Saya adalah yang lebih cenderung ke arah simpanan berbanding pelaburan.
Harga emas, membuak pada peratusan yang agak tinggi beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini adalah disebabkan oleh terbongkarnya konspirasi penekanan terhadap harga emas boleh pihak tertentu.
Bihak Bank Persekutuan Amerika dikatakan menyembunyikan fakta sebenar berapa banyak emas yng disimpan, tetapi 'meminjamkan' emas kepada pasaran emas supaya wujud bekalan berlebihan. Ini digunakan untuk mengekalkan nilai dollar pada paras yang tinggi walaupun mereka mengeluarkan dollar pada kadar yang tinggi.
Dollar yang tinggi membolehkan mereka membeli komoditi import daripada negara lain dengan menggunakan kertas sahaja.
Berbalik kepada persoalan simpanan atau pelaburan. Sekiranya tidak wujud tekanan terhadap harga emas, emas perlu dimiliki sebagai rizab bagi sesebuah keluarga atau individu. Ini disebabkan kerana sifat wang kertas itu yang sentiasa mengembang.
Secara umumnya semua orang faham bahawa apabila wang kertas dicetak, nilainya akan turun.
Namun satu perkara yang perlu difahami ialah penurunan nilai wang kertas tidak berlaku sejurus sahaja dicetak.
Pada tahun 1982, keseluruhan wang Ringgit yang di dalam kitaran dan dideposit hanyalah 12.47 bilion.
Pada laporan BNM yang terkini nilai itu meningkat kepada lebih 200 bilion.
Jika kita bandingkan, bilangan wang ringgit telah bertambah 16 kali ganda atau 1600%.
Namun harga barang tidak meningkat 16 kali ganda.
Belum lagi.
Secara kasar, berdasarkan pemahaman ringgit, jika wang dicetak lebih, nilainya turun.
Namun apa yang berlaku ialah nilai lambat turun, tetapi tetap akan turun.
Pembuakan harga emas dalam USD adalah berkait dengan bekalan wang Amerika.
Di Malaysia, kita masih terikut tukaran asing untuk mendapatkan harga emas.
Akan tetapi apabila "Ringgit" dibandingkan dengan emas yang berada di Malaysia, maka akan tahulah nanti berapa nilai ringgit yang sebenar.
Pada kehidupan harian, nilai yang ada pada ringgit itu merosot setiap tahun, pada kadar yang sedikit.
"inflasi 3% , apa kisah?"
Namun inflasi sebenar adalah pada kadar yang lebih tinggi.
Sistem kawalan harga yang membuatkan ianya kelihatan rendah.
Satu hari nanti ia akan membuak jua. Tanda tanda awal ialah "tidak mampu tanggung subsidi". (Hmmmmm selalu demgar nih....)
Pengsubsidian adalah kaedah menyembunyikan inflasi sebenar.
Fungsi emas adalah menyimpan nilai sebenar.
Andai kata beberapa dekad dulu 200 gram emas mampu untuk menghantar anak ke universiti.
Maka kalau ada krisis kewangan bagaimana pun, 200 gram emas itu masih mampu untuk menghantar anak ke universiti, walaupun ketika itu 200 gram emas harganya RM 8,000.(Hmmmmmm arini emas 200g melebihi RM36,000....Cukup lah untuk cover kos pengajian ijazah sarjana muda)
Menurut teori ahli kewangan yang tersohor, supaya menyediakan rizab kewangan beberapa bulan gaji.
Maka rizab itu perlu disediakan dalam bentuk emas.
Memang kalau boleh kita tidak mahu ringgit itu runtuh, namun ianya bukanlah sesuatu yang mustahil untuk berlaku.
Cuba ingat2....Ketika British memerintah tanah melayu, matawang kertas Straits Dollar digunakan, namun apabila Jepun memerintah Kertas itu tidak lagi laku. Kemudian British datang balik, wang kertas jepun pula tidak laku.
Apa terjadi kalau hasil titik peluh disimpan dalam bentuk wang kertas, lenyap sekelip mata?
Maka, menyimpan emas, adalah menyimpan hasil titik peluh, supaya nilainya tidak merosot akibat membuakan inflasi atau krisis kewangan.
Sekarang adalah musim membeli emas.
Terdapat 2 jenis pembeli emas.
Ada yang menganggapnya sebagai pelaburan, ada yang mengganggapnya sebagai simpanan.
Saya adalah yang lebih cenderung ke arah simpanan berbanding pelaburan.
Harga emas, membuak pada peratusan yang agak tinggi beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini adalah disebabkan oleh terbongkarnya konspirasi penekanan terhadap harga emas boleh pihak tertentu.
Bihak Bank Persekutuan Amerika dikatakan menyembunyikan fakta sebenar berapa banyak emas yng disimpan, tetapi 'meminjamkan' emas kepada pasaran emas supaya wujud bekalan berlebihan. Ini digunakan untuk mengekalkan nilai dollar pada paras yang tinggi walaupun mereka mengeluarkan dollar pada kadar yang tinggi.
Dollar yang tinggi membolehkan mereka membeli komoditi import daripada negara lain dengan menggunakan kertas sahaja.
Berbalik kepada persoalan simpanan atau pelaburan. Sekiranya tidak wujud tekanan terhadap harga emas, emas perlu dimiliki sebagai rizab bagi sesebuah keluarga atau individu. Ini disebabkan kerana sifat wang kertas itu yang sentiasa mengembang.
Secara umumnya semua orang faham bahawa apabila wang kertas dicetak, nilainya akan turun.
Namun satu perkara yang perlu difahami ialah penurunan nilai wang kertas tidak berlaku sejurus sahaja dicetak.
Pada tahun 1982, keseluruhan wang Ringgit yang di dalam kitaran dan dideposit hanyalah 12.47 bilion.
Pada laporan BNM yang terkini nilai itu meningkat kepada lebih 200 bilion.
Jika kita bandingkan, bilangan wang ringgit telah bertambah 16 kali ganda atau 1600%.
Namun harga barang tidak meningkat 16 kali ganda.
Belum lagi.
Secara kasar, berdasarkan pemahaman ringgit, jika wang dicetak lebih, nilainya turun.
Namun apa yang berlaku ialah nilai lambat turun, tetapi tetap akan turun.
Pembuakan harga emas dalam USD adalah berkait dengan bekalan wang Amerika.
Di Malaysia, kita masih terikut tukaran asing untuk mendapatkan harga emas.
Akan tetapi apabila "Ringgit" dibandingkan dengan emas yang berada di Malaysia, maka akan tahulah nanti berapa nilai ringgit yang sebenar.
Pada kehidupan harian, nilai yang ada pada ringgit itu merosot setiap tahun, pada kadar yang sedikit.
"inflasi 3% , apa kisah?"
Namun inflasi sebenar adalah pada kadar yang lebih tinggi.
Sistem kawalan harga yang membuatkan ianya kelihatan rendah.
Satu hari nanti ia akan membuak jua. Tanda tanda awal ialah "tidak mampu tanggung subsidi". (Hmmmmm selalu demgar nih....)
Pengsubsidian adalah kaedah menyembunyikan inflasi sebenar.
Fungsi emas adalah menyimpan nilai sebenar.
Andai kata beberapa dekad dulu 200 gram emas mampu untuk menghantar anak ke universiti.
Maka kalau ada krisis kewangan bagaimana pun, 200 gram emas itu masih mampu untuk menghantar anak ke universiti, walaupun ketika itu 200 gram emas harganya RM 8,000.(Hmmmmmm arini emas 200g melebihi RM36,000....Cukup lah untuk cover kos pengajian ijazah sarjana muda)
Menurut teori ahli kewangan yang tersohor, supaya menyediakan rizab kewangan beberapa bulan gaji.
Maka rizab itu perlu disediakan dalam bentuk emas.
Memang kalau boleh kita tidak mahu ringgit itu runtuh, namun ianya bukanlah sesuatu yang mustahil untuk berlaku.
Cuba ingat2....Ketika British memerintah tanah melayu, matawang kertas Straits Dollar digunakan, namun apabila Jepun memerintah Kertas itu tidak lagi laku. Kemudian British datang balik, wang kertas jepun pula tidak laku.
Apa terjadi kalau hasil titik peluh disimpan dalam bentuk wang kertas, lenyap sekelip mata?
Maka, menyimpan emas, adalah menyimpan hasil titik peluh, supaya nilainya tidak merosot akibat membuakan inflasi atau krisis kewangan.
INGIN MENYIMPAN DAN MELABUR DALAM EMAS?
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
Ingin MELABUR/NIAGA dalam EMAS tapi kekurangan modal dan ilmu??? Manfaatkan the power of arrahnu. Pihak saya sediakan barang kemas untuk dipajak dan EMAS tersebut milik ANDA. Hubungi saya untuk penerangan lanjut. Bersatu memajukan ummah. Sediakan modal 35% daripada nilai belian sahaja.
Kita starting dengan modal kecik sebab kita guna kuasa OPM. OPM tu 'Other People Money'.Kita beli barang pakai duit orang. Ramai orang kata tunggu dapat bonus baru beli barang kemas. Tapi tanggapan itu merugikan. Lebih baik kita beli sekarang guna konsep ar-rahnu(pajak gadai Islam), kita bayar 30-35%% jer cash, balance 65-70% ar-rahnu bayarkan. Sebab harga EMAS sekarang 10g mungkin RM1,700-RM1,800 jer, tapi lagi 4-5 bulan mungkin dah jadi melebihi RM2,000. So, mana lagi untung? Lebih baik kita secure harga sekarang dan bila dah dapat bonus kita tebus balik barang tu dekat arrahnu. Upah simpan bulan2 sikit sangat,tupun ada penangguhan 6 bulan. Hmmmm...Dah menyala lampu dalam minda tu?...Hmmmm.......
Untuk Maklumat lanjut boleh CALL 016-6518229(KAPTEN) dan juga e-mail roccii90@yahoo.com
Ingin MELABUR/NIAGA dalam EMAS tapi kekurangan modal dan ilmu??? Manfaatkan the power of arrahnu. Pihak saya sediakan barang kemas untuk dipajak dan EMAS tersebut milik ANDA. Hubungi saya untuk penerangan lanjut. Bersatu memajukan ummah. Sediakan modal 35% daripada nilai belian sahaja.
Kita starting dengan modal kecik sebab kita guna kuasa OPM. OPM tu 'Other People Money'.Kita beli barang pakai duit orang. Ramai orang kata tunggu dapat bonus baru beli barang kemas. Tapi tanggapan itu merugikan. Lebih baik kita beli sekarang guna konsep ar-rahnu(pajak gadai Islam), kita bayar 30-35%% jer cash, balance 65-70% ar-rahnu bayarkan. Sebab harga EMAS sekarang 10g mungkin RM1,700-RM1,800 jer, tapi lagi 4-5 bulan mungkin dah jadi melebihi RM2,000. So, mana lagi untung? Lebih baik kita secure harga sekarang dan bila dah dapat bonus kita tebus balik barang tu dekat arrahnu. Upah simpan bulan2 sikit sangat,tupun ada penangguhan 6 bulan. Hmmmm...Dah menyala lampu dalam minda tu?...Hmmmm.......
Untuk Maklumat lanjut boleh CALL 016-6518229(KAPTEN) dan juga e-mail roccii90@yahoo.com
Wednesday 20 July 2011
SEJARAH MEMBUKTIKAN KEUTUHAN NILAI EMAS
London Market Price
(British £ [1718-1949] or
U.S. $ [1950-2010] per fine ounce)
Tahun Nilai
1900 £ 4.25
1901 £ 4.25
1902 £ 4.24
1903 £ 4.25
1904 £ 4.25
1905 £ 4.24
1906 £ 4.25
1907 £ 4.25
1908 £ 4.25
1909 £ 4.24
1910 £ 4.24
1911 £ 4.24
1912 £ 4.24
1913 £ 4.24
1914 £ 4.24
1915 £ 4.24
1916 £ 4.24
1917 £ 4.24
1918 £ 4.24
1919 £ 4.50
1920 £ 5.65
1921 £ 5.35
1922 £ 4.67
1923 £ 4.51
1924 £ 4.69
1925 £ 4.27
1926 £ 4.25
1927 £ 4.25
1928 £ 4.25
1929 £ 4.25
1930 £ 4.25
1931 £ 4.63
1932 £ 5.90
1933 £ 6.24
1934 £ 6.88
1935 £ 7.11
1936 £ 7.01
1937 £ 7.04
1938 £ 7.13
1939 £ 7.72
1940 £ 8.40
1941 £ 8.40
1942 £ 8.40
1943 £ 8.40
1944 £ 8.40
1945 £ 8.40
1946 £ 8.40
1947 £ 8.40
1948 £ 8.40
1949 £ 8.40
1950 $ 34.71
1951 $ 34.71
1952 $ 34.71
1953 $ 34.71
1954 $ 34.96
1955 $ 35.01
1956 $ 35.00
1957 $ 34.95
1958 $ 35.10
1959 $ 35.09
1960 $ 35.28
1961 $ 35.15
1962 $ 35.10
1963 $ 35.09
1964 $ 35.09
1965 $ 35.13
1966 $ 35.17
1967 $ 35.19
1968 $ 38.69
1969 $ 41.09
1970 $ 35.94
1971 $ 40.80
1972 $ 58.16
1973 $ 97.32
1974 $ 159.26
1975 $ 161.02
1976 $ 124.84
1977 $ 147.71
1978 $ 193.22
1979 $ 306.68
1980 $ 612.56
1981 $ 460.03
1982 $ 375.67
1983 $ 424.35
1984 $ 360.48
1985 $ 317.28
1986 $ 367.51
1987 $ 446.47
1988 $ 437.05
1989 $ 381.43
1990 $ 383.47
1991 $ 362.18
1992 $ 343.73
1993 $ 359.77
1994 $ 384.01
1995 $ 384.16
1996 $ 387.69
1997 $ 331.10
1998 $ 294.16
1999 $ 278.64
2000 $ 279.03
2001 $ 271.04
2002 $ 309.68
2003 $ 363.32
2004 $ 409.17
2005 $ 444.45
2006 $ 603.77
2007 $ 695.39
2008 $ 871.96
2009 $ 972.35
2010 $ 1,224.53
(British £ [1718-1949] or
U.S. $ [1950-2010] per fine ounce)
Tahun Nilai
1900 £ 4.25
1901 £ 4.25
1902 £ 4.24
1903 £ 4.25
1904 £ 4.25
1905 £ 4.24
1906 £ 4.25
1907 £ 4.25
1908 £ 4.25
1909 £ 4.24
1910 £ 4.24
1911 £ 4.24
1912 £ 4.24
1913 £ 4.24
1914 £ 4.24
1915 £ 4.24
1916 £ 4.24
1917 £ 4.24
1918 £ 4.24
1919 £ 4.50
1920 £ 5.65
1921 £ 5.35
1922 £ 4.67
1923 £ 4.51
1924 £ 4.69
1925 £ 4.27
1926 £ 4.25
1927 £ 4.25
1928 £ 4.25
1929 £ 4.25
1930 £ 4.25
1931 £ 4.63
1932 £ 5.90
1933 £ 6.24
1934 £ 6.88
1935 £ 7.11
1936 £ 7.01
1937 £ 7.04
1938 £ 7.13
1939 £ 7.72
1940 £ 8.40
1941 £ 8.40
1942 £ 8.40
1943 £ 8.40
1944 £ 8.40
1945 £ 8.40
1946 £ 8.40
1947 £ 8.40
1948 £ 8.40
1949 £ 8.40
1950 $ 34.71
1951 $ 34.71
1952 $ 34.71
1953 $ 34.71
1954 $ 34.96
1955 $ 35.01
1956 $ 35.00
1957 $ 34.95
1958 $ 35.10
1959 $ 35.09
1960 $ 35.28
1961 $ 35.15
1962 $ 35.10
1963 $ 35.09
1964 $ 35.09
1965 $ 35.13
1966 $ 35.17
1967 $ 35.19
1968 $ 38.69
1969 $ 41.09
1970 $ 35.94
1971 $ 40.80
1972 $ 58.16
1973 $ 97.32
1974 $ 159.26
1975 $ 161.02
1976 $ 124.84
1977 $ 147.71
1978 $ 193.22
1979 $ 306.68
1980 $ 612.56
1981 $ 460.03
1982 $ 375.67
1983 $ 424.35
1984 $ 360.48
1985 $ 317.28
1986 $ 367.51
1987 $ 446.47
1988 $ 437.05
1989 $ 381.43
1990 $ 383.47
1991 $ 362.18
1992 $ 343.73
1993 $ 359.77
1994 $ 384.01
1995 $ 384.16
1996 $ 387.69
1997 $ 331.10
1998 $ 294.16
1999 $ 278.64
2000 $ 279.03
2001 $ 271.04
2002 $ 309.68
2003 $ 363.32
2004 $ 409.17
2005 $ 444.45
2006 $ 603.77
2007 $ 695.39
2008 $ 871.96
2009 $ 972.35
2010 $ 1,224.53
Tuesday 19 July 2011
Bilakah masa terbaik untuk membeli emas?
Bilakah masanya ?
Ramai orang bertanya bilakah masa terbaik untuk membeli emas kerana harga sentiasa berubah, hampir setiap jam. Pada masa ini, harga emas adalah dalam trend menaik dan kadangkala pula dilihat "trend" sama ada ke atas atau ke bawah. Anda lihat di berita setiap hari harga emas turun naik. Biasanya diukur dari segi dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS) setiap auns. Tetapi apa yang sebenarnya berlaku di sini? Apakah maknanya semua ini? Trend emas naik dan turun adalah berhubungkait dengan nilai dolar. Jumlah nilai emas sebenarnya tidak berubah dengan amat ketara sama sekali. Malah jika anda memeriksa kembali melalui sejarah, anda akan melihat bahawa nilai emas lebih 1000 tahun yang lalu hampir tidak berubah sama sekali berbanding dengan nilai barang-barang lain. Satu auns emas hari ini akan membeli hampir jumlah yang sama barang-barang sebagaimana yang berlaku 50 tahun, 100 tahun maupun 1000 tahun yang lalu . Satu-satunya perubahan adalah sebenarnya nilai mata wang bukan emas. Inflasi dan kemelesetan ekonomi atau resessi (untuk menggunakan perkataan popular), semuanya memberi kesan kepada nilai mata wang fiskal tetapi secara umumnya tidak menjejaskan emas, nilai satu auns emas, contohnya dalam tahun 1800 ialah sekitar USD19-USD20 per auns . Pada hari ini adalah dalam julat melebihi USD1500 per auns. Turun naik yang besar sebagai akibat langsung kepada nilai yang berkurangan. Di sini kita lihat betapa bernilainya Emas. Satu contoh yang baik. Penurunan dalam nilai dolar kerana peningkatan dalam kuantiti dolar yang dicetak. Menurut indeks harga pengguna serta kenyataannya kos USD20 Emas pada tahun 1800 akan kos USD1500 pada tahun 2011. Dalam ertikata lain juga, jika anda membeli satu produk yang sama pada tahun 2011 dan 1800, maka kos anda ialah USD20 dan $ 0.013 sen masing-masing ......(End of part 1).. HMMm tunggu part 2...nanti....Wassalam
Ramai orang bertanya bilakah masa terbaik untuk membeli emas kerana harga sentiasa berubah, hampir setiap jam. Pada masa ini, harga emas adalah dalam trend menaik dan kadangkala pula dilihat "trend" sama ada ke atas atau ke bawah. Anda lihat di berita setiap hari harga emas turun naik. Biasanya diukur dari segi dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS) setiap auns. Tetapi apa yang sebenarnya berlaku di sini? Apakah maknanya semua ini? Trend emas naik dan turun adalah berhubungkait dengan nilai dolar. Jumlah nilai emas sebenarnya tidak berubah dengan amat ketara sama sekali. Malah jika anda memeriksa kembali melalui sejarah, anda akan melihat bahawa nilai emas lebih 1000 tahun yang lalu hampir tidak berubah sama sekali berbanding dengan nilai barang-barang lain. Satu auns emas hari ini akan membeli hampir jumlah yang sama barang-barang sebagaimana yang berlaku 50 tahun, 100 tahun maupun 1000 tahun yang lalu . Satu-satunya perubahan adalah sebenarnya nilai mata wang bukan emas. Inflasi dan kemelesetan ekonomi atau resessi (untuk menggunakan perkataan popular), semuanya memberi kesan kepada nilai mata wang fiskal tetapi secara umumnya tidak menjejaskan emas, nilai satu auns emas, contohnya dalam tahun 1800 ialah sekitar USD19-USD20 per auns . Pada hari ini adalah dalam julat melebihi USD1500 per auns. Turun naik yang besar sebagai akibat langsung kepada nilai yang berkurangan. Di sini kita lihat betapa bernilainya Emas. Satu contoh yang baik. Penurunan dalam nilai dolar kerana peningkatan dalam kuantiti dolar yang dicetak. Menurut indeks harga pengguna serta kenyataannya kos USD20 Emas pada tahun 1800 akan kos USD1500 pada tahun 2011. Dalam ertikata lain juga, jika anda membeli satu produk yang sama pada tahun 2011 dan 1800, maka kos anda ialah USD20 dan $ 0.013 sen masing-masing ......(End of part 1).. HMMm tunggu part 2...nanti....Wassalam
AR RAHNU
Arrahnu ?
Definisi dari sudut syarak:
Ar-Rahnu dari sudut syarak merujuk kepada satu barang yang berharga dijadikan sebagai sandaran yang terikat dengan hutang bercagar yang boleh dibayar dengannya sekiranya hutang tersebut tidak dapat dijelaskan.
Ar-Rahnu boleh ditakrifkan sebagai keadaan di mana penghutang atau penerima pinjaman menyandarkan barang kepunyaan sebagai jaminan kepada hutang atau pinjaman yang diterima daripada pemiutang atau pemberi pinjaman.
Di Malaysia, antara tempat pajakan(Ar-Rahnu)
1. Ar-Rahnu Agro Bank
Boleh kunjungi 72 cawangan yang berdekatan di seluruh negara.
2. Ar-Rahn (Sistem Gadaian Islam)
Boleh kunjungi 22 cawangan seluruh Semenanjung Malaysia. Terutama di sekitar pantai timur.
3. Ar-Rahnu EON Islamic Bank
Boleh kunjungi cawangancawangannya yang terpileh seluruh Malaysia
4. Ar-Rahnu Koperasi UNIKEB
Boleh kunjungi wisma UNIKEB,UKM Bangi.
5. Ar-Rahnu KPMJ Gold Sdn Bhd
Boleh kunjungi 2 cawangannya di Bangunan KPMNJ Jalan Segget dan Bangunan Wisma Koperasi Melayu sekitar Johor Bahru.
6. Ar-Rahnu Kotani
Boleh kunjungi Wisma Kotani Bandar Tasik Selatan, Selangor.
7. Ar-Rahnu Bank Rakyat
Sila kunjungi cawangan cawangan Bank rakyat berdekatan seluruh Malaysia
8. Ar-Rahnu Exchange
Franchise Ar-rahnu Bank rakyat seluruh Malaysia
Kadar upah simpannya adalah berbeza. Dari yang terendah iaitu 0.65% sehinnga 0.95 % sebulan bagi setiap RM 100 Nilai Marhun , serta margin pinjaman yang diperolehi juga tinggi iaitu 65 hingga 70%. Anda juga boleh memperolehi pinjaman sehingga RM 50,000 seharitertakluk kepada institusi berkenaan. Tempoh matangnya juga panjang iaitu 6 bulan dan boleh diperbaharuiseterusnya dengan bayaran upah simpan terdahulu.
Definisi dari sudut syarak:
Ar-Rahnu dari sudut syarak merujuk kepada satu barang yang berharga dijadikan sebagai sandaran yang terikat dengan hutang bercagar yang boleh dibayar dengannya sekiranya hutang tersebut tidak dapat dijelaskan.
Ar-Rahnu boleh ditakrifkan sebagai keadaan di mana penghutang atau penerima pinjaman menyandarkan barang kepunyaan sebagai jaminan kepada hutang atau pinjaman yang diterima daripada pemiutang atau pemberi pinjaman.
Di Malaysia, antara tempat pajakan(Ar-Rahnu)
1. Ar-Rahnu Agro Bank
Boleh kunjungi 72 cawangan yang berdekatan di seluruh negara.
2. Ar-Rahn (Sistem Gadaian Islam)
Boleh kunjungi 22 cawangan seluruh Semenanjung Malaysia. Terutama di sekitar pantai timur.
3. Ar-Rahnu EON Islamic Bank
Boleh kunjungi cawangancawangannya yang terpileh seluruh Malaysia
4. Ar-Rahnu Koperasi UNIKEB
Boleh kunjungi wisma UNIKEB,UKM Bangi.
5. Ar-Rahnu KPMJ Gold Sdn Bhd
Boleh kunjungi 2 cawangannya di Bangunan KPMNJ Jalan Segget dan Bangunan Wisma Koperasi Melayu sekitar Johor Bahru.
6. Ar-Rahnu Kotani
Boleh kunjungi Wisma Kotani Bandar Tasik Selatan, Selangor.
7. Ar-Rahnu Bank Rakyat
Sila kunjungi cawangan cawangan Bank rakyat berdekatan seluruh Malaysia
8. Ar-Rahnu Exchange
Franchise Ar-rahnu Bank rakyat seluruh Malaysia
Kadar upah simpannya adalah berbeza. Dari yang terendah iaitu 0.65% sehinnga 0.95 % sebulan bagi setiap RM 100 Nilai Marhun , serta margin pinjaman yang diperolehi juga tinggi iaitu 65 hingga 70%. Anda juga boleh memperolehi pinjaman sehingga RM 50,000 seharitertakluk kepada institusi berkenaan. Tempoh matangnya juga panjang iaitu 6 bulan dan boleh diperbaharuiseterusnya dengan bayaran upah simpan terdahulu.
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