Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
NEW YORK (Rosland Capital) -
In case you hadn't noticed, gold prices have been surging to new all-time highs. At one point today (Thursday, August 18th) the yellow metal touched a record $1,830 an ounce - (and has risen still further overnight to pass the $1850 mark Friday morning in Europe.)
Whether gold continues to skyrocket, settles into a new trading range around recent levels, or plummets as high prices discourage buyers and encourage profit-takers is anyone's guess.
At some point, however, we will see a correction, perhaps a sizeable one. After all, even strong bull markets never move up in straight lines. I would not be surprised to see gold stumble - falling back $100, $200, or even $300 - before prices begin working their way higher once again.
My advice to gold investors is to use sell-offs, when they occur, as opportunities for scale-down buying. And, those who are underweighted or own no metal should gradually acquire physical metal with their focus on long-term portfolio protection rather than short-term profits.
Adding to my short-term caution has been some price-related relaxation of physical demand and the appearance of increased quantities of gold scrap returning to the market, especially from India and other price-sensitive national markets.
I'm confident gold's long-term uptrend will continue in the months and years ahead, ultimately reaching a multiple of today's record level.
SEASONAL DEMAND
In any event, gold will soon begin to benefit from increased seasonal demand, demand that should support the yellow metal's price right through New Year's Day. There are three distinct sources of seasonal demand: (1) Western jewelers step up fabrication demand ahead of Christmas gift-giving late in the year; (2) Indian dealers begin stocking up ahead of the late summer and autumn festivals and wedding season; and (3) in December and January, the approaching Chinese lunar new year triggers another sharp rise in gold demand.
For sure, irrespective of the season, Asian demand - principally from China and India - for physical metal will continue to underpin these markets and limit downside risks.
So too will bargain hunting by a number of central banks eager to raise their official gold holdings without disrupting the world gold market by increasing upward price volatility.
BULLISH ECONOMIC FORCES TO CONTINUE
There is no reason to believe that the forces and factors pushing gold higher - in the past weeks, months, and years - are simply going to disappear anytime soon. I've been talking about many of these for years . . . and, I expect I'll still be talking about these same pro-gold forces for years to come.
The recent rush of gold buying is, in large part, a rational response to rising uncertainty, anxiety, and fear that the U.S. and European economies are stumbling badly . . . and world financial markets are increasingly vulnerable to an epileptic seizure, or worse.
In recent days, signs of renewed recession on both sides of the Atlantic and Europe's worsening sovereign-debt crisis are raising expectations that the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) will both be compelled to pursue evermore stimulative monetary policies beginning with a new round of quantitative easing in the United States and stepped-up ECB purchases of sovereign debt and/or interest-rate cuts in Europe.
These policies - and the implications for future inflation and monetary debasement - are like steroids for the gold market, causing investors and central-bank reserve managers to seek the protection of gold.
In any event, whatever happens in the U.S. and European economies, it is hard to imagine a realistic scenario that won't push gold prices significantly higher.
CENTRAL BANK ACQUISITION: MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOU THINK
Importantly, contributing to gold's recent swift rise has been the growing interest and stepped-up acquisition of gold by the official sector.
This was underscored by the Central Bank of Venezuela's recent announcement that it was repatriating much of its official gold reserves from foreign custody. Statistics from the Bank for International Settlements (the BIS) suggest that a number of other countries have, in the past year, repatriated gold rather than store it in the custody of the Bank of England, the New York Federal Reserve Bank, or in the vaults of other central banks.
While these are not purchases of gold affecting the world market supply/demand balance, the trend toward repatriation illustrates the special role gold plays as an asset of last resort among central bank reserve managers.
Increasingly, central banks are buying gold: South Korea announced a couple of weeks ago that it had purchased 25 tons over the past two months, almost tripling its central bank gold holdings. Thailand's central bank, too, has been an important buyer, recently adding nearly 18 tons to its official gold stocks. Even the Banco de Mexico bought 100 tons earlier this year, joining China, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia - all of which bought large quantities in recent years. Russia continues to buy gold regularly from its domestic production - and, we think, China does likewise though it chooses not to report its purchases.
News of central bank gold repatriation - and, even more so, outright purchases - is likely to encourage more central banks underweighted in gold to begin or continue buying. Even more so than many private investors, central bankers are apt to be purchasers for the long haul, holding gold as a diversifier and insurance policy against what they perceive to be the growing risk of U.S. dollar depreciation and debasement.
I expect the rising trend in central bank interest and accumulation of gold will be an important force in the market for many years to come. In the meantime, bargain hunting by a number of central banks eager to raise their official gold holdings without disrupting the world gold market will help limit downside risk.
Jeffrey Nichols is Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, and Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors.
EMAS-KLASIK
Sunday 21 August 2011
Thursday 18 August 2011
Gold hits record high of above US$1,816 an ounce
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
LONDON : The price of gold hit a record high of above US$1,816 an ounce Thursday, as demand for the safe haven investment rose on resurgent worries about a possible new recession for the global economy, analysts said.
Gold struck US$1,816.25 on the London Bullion Market shortly before 1200 GMT, beating the previous record of US$1,814.95 that was forged on August 11.
It later pulled back slightly to stand at US$1,809.65 an ounce.
The new high came as Europe's main stock markets were plunging ahead of US inflation data, with Frankfurt's DAX 30 index down more than 4.0 percent.
"There is another air of panic out there in the market today, what with the DAX... US crude oil falling two dollars and European banks getting crushed again," said Ian O'Sullivan, an analyst at Spread Co. trading group.
"The beneficiary once again of this nervousness has been gold, which has shot up another 30 dollars today."
Gold is seen as a safe bet in times of economic uncertainty.
- AFP/ir
LONDON : The price of gold hit a record high of above US$1,816 an ounce Thursday, as demand for the safe haven investment rose on resurgent worries about a possible new recession for the global economy, analysts said.
Gold struck US$1,816.25 on the London Bullion Market shortly before 1200 GMT, beating the previous record of US$1,814.95 that was forged on August 11.
It later pulled back slightly to stand at US$1,809.65 an ounce.
The new high came as Europe's main stock markets were plunging ahead of US inflation data, with Frankfurt's DAX 30 index down more than 4.0 percent.
"There is another air of panic out there in the market today, what with the DAX... US crude oil falling two dollars and European banks getting crushed again," said Ian O'Sullivan, an analyst at Spread Co. trading group.
"The beneficiary once again of this nervousness has been gold, which has shot up another 30 dollars today."
Gold is seen as a safe bet in times of economic uncertainty.
- AFP/ir
Wednesday 17 August 2011
The huge leap in the gold price - what did it actually say?
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
The recent big surge in the gold price presages considerably more economic pain before governments take the necessary steps to rebalance the global economy.
Author: Julian Phillips
BENONI -
In the last weeks we have seen the gold price jump from the price we alerted our subscribers of $1,555, to reach just over $1,800 before reacting downwards today. Contrary to the view of many analysts, we do not see this as a frothy overrun from which it will pull back. On the contrary, this rise in the gold price has said so much more than simply, trading peak.
Many have blamed the unfortunate S & P ratings agency for the market dramas in the last two weeks, but they were simply the boy who said ‘the emperor had no clothes on.' For months now, we have known and commented on the fact that the debt crises on both sides of the Atlantic would lead to trouble. One hopes that the news is not as bad as it seems, but we all knew it was. The build-up of parallel crises added weight to the drama so when the Dow suddenly sank it was simply a postponed reaction. The fact that a ‘head-and-shoulders' had completed its formation made the market ripe for fall.
Everybody reacted all over the world as this postponed reality was publicly accepted. The oil price fell to below $80, the dollar and the euro fell like a stone, the Swiss Franc and the Yen soared to economy-destructive levels and eventually the Fed confirmed that the U.S. economy should see no growth for another 2 years. The Chinese government called for a new global reserve currency to replace the dollar.
All in all, the global economic scene experienced a gear-shift,
down to a darker investment climate...
The$1,555 gold price had already signaled that it was going to take off in June, but the S & P trigger sent it soaring effortlessly to $1,800. Only now are these new realities being properly absorbed, although slowly...
WHY?
We see the S & P downgrade as a judgment on the Congressional inability to properly assess the dire nature of the U.S. credit situation because of their fixation on party politics. It is the first time that the U.S. Congress has had to see the rest of the world react to the declining U.S. global economic dominance. It had to happen for the U.S. Congress to understand that the U.S. is responsible for its behavior and will face consequences if it does not adjust. It's a change that has not happened for 40 years.
We do not see a change in the political behavior of Congress until more consequences force that change. There may be considerable economic pain before this happens, and the future brightens for the U.S. During this time the U.S. has to see that it is no longer the world's economic axis, allowed to extract advantage from the rest of the world through its ‘exorbitant privilege' of printing money to pull itself out of economic decline. As we forecast at the beginning of this year, 2011 would be a year of consequences!
THE FUTURE
As we move towards QE3, more dollar printing and the consequential inflation, we fully expect the reaction of the dollar to weaken much faster. QE3 will confirm that they have chosen inflation as a way out of a double-dip recession or deflation. The interdependence of currencies will prevent exchange rates from highlighting any currency's weakness. We have seen this last week in the actions of Japan and Switzerland to weaken their safe-haven currencies. History will record that the announcement by S & P was simply a trigger for a new era of currency instability and the loss of currency values.
Only the gold price is now truly capable of measuring the weakness of currencies. The jump in the gold price over the past decade has been screaming this to all, but few outside of gold were listening. The leap since June of $250 reflected the acceleration in the speed of declining values.
It is natural for us to assume that the global monetary authorities will agree to a reformation of the monetary system that effectively addresses the mess it is in right now. Certainly we expect the mess to worsen considerably before this is accepted.
After that, who will be responsible for putting it right?
What obstacles will they face?
v Politicians will have to please those who put them in power and cannot act independently of this power base, no matter how necessary a departure may be. It would be political suicide to do anything else -a consequence of democracy.
v Politicians or Monetary Officials likewise will have to ensure they act in the interests of their nation even if it goes against the greater good of the international community.
v The international pecking order will weigh in to give priority to measures put forward by the most powerful. The battle will likely impact the voting rights in the I.M.F. where the 16.83% of the U.S. -the I.M.F. needs an 85% vote to pass any measure-will come under fire and China will be given a share of the voting commensurate with its growing economic power.
v All of the above has to be decided before China's request for a new global reserve currency can even be contemplated.
v A new global reserve currency would require either the diminishing of the dollar's role in the global economy or its removal as its sole reserve currency.
The obstacles will prevent the much-needed structural monetary reform. Are the current powers-that-be impartial enough or be franchised to formulate a globally reformed effective monetary system? Not yet, if we look back at the efforts of the U.S. Congress to cut their budget deficit.
What is next? History shows that willing change, when not forthcoming gives way to unwilling change! Unwilling change climbs out of wars or rupturing, destructive, crises that remove the above barriers and which license the powers-that-be to undertake needed, sweeping reforms.
Julian Phillips is a long time specialist analyst of the gold and silver markets and is the principal contributor to the Gold Forecaster -
The recent big surge in the gold price presages considerably more economic pain before governments take the necessary steps to rebalance the global economy.
Author: Julian Phillips
BENONI -
In the last weeks we have seen the gold price jump from the price we alerted our subscribers of $1,555, to reach just over $1,800 before reacting downwards today. Contrary to the view of many analysts, we do not see this as a frothy overrun from which it will pull back. On the contrary, this rise in the gold price has said so much more than simply, trading peak.
Many have blamed the unfortunate S & P ratings agency for the market dramas in the last two weeks, but they were simply the boy who said ‘the emperor had no clothes on.' For months now, we have known and commented on the fact that the debt crises on both sides of the Atlantic would lead to trouble. One hopes that the news is not as bad as it seems, but we all knew it was. The build-up of parallel crises added weight to the drama so when the Dow suddenly sank it was simply a postponed reaction. The fact that a ‘head-and-shoulders' had completed its formation made the market ripe for fall.
Everybody reacted all over the world as this postponed reality was publicly accepted. The oil price fell to below $80, the dollar and the euro fell like a stone, the Swiss Franc and the Yen soared to economy-destructive levels and eventually the Fed confirmed that the U.S. economy should see no growth for another 2 years. The Chinese government called for a new global reserve currency to replace the dollar.
All in all, the global economic scene experienced a gear-shift,
down to a darker investment climate...
The$1,555 gold price had already signaled that it was going to take off in June, but the S & P trigger sent it soaring effortlessly to $1,800. Only now are these new realities being properly absorbed, although slowly...
WHY?
We see the S & P downgrade as a judgment on the Congressional inability to properly assess the dire nature of the U.S. credit situation because of their fixation on party politics. It is the first time that the U.S. Congress has had to see the rest of the world react to the declining U.S. global economic dominance. It had to happen for the U.S. Congress to understand that the U.S. is responsible for its behavior and will face consequences if it does not adjust. It's a change that has not happened for 40 years.
We do not see a change in the political behavior of Congress until more consequences force that change. There may be considerable economic pain before this happens, and the future brightens for the U.S. During this time the U.S. has to see that it is no longer the world's economic axis, allowed to extract advantage from the rest of the world through its ‘exorbitant privilege' of printing money to pull itself out of economic decline. As we forecast at the beginning of this year, 2011 would be a year of consequences!
THE FUTURE
As we move towards QE3, more dollar printing and the consequential inflation, we fully expect the reaction of the dollar to weaken much faster. QE3 will confirm that they have chosen inflation as a way out of a double-dip recession or deflation. The interdependence of currencies will prevent exchange rates from highlighting any currency's weakness. We have seen this last week in the actions of Japan and Switzerland to weaken their safe-haven currencies. History will record that the announcement by S & P was simply a trigger for a new era of currency instability and the loss of currency values.
Only the gold price is now truly capable of measuring the weakness of currencies. The jump in the gold price over the past decade has been screaming this to all, but few outside of gold were listening. The leap since June of $250 reflected the acceleration in the speed of declining values.
It is natural for us to assume that the global monetary authorities will agree to a reformation of the monetary system that effectively addresses the mess it is in right now. Certainly we expect the mess to worsen considerably before this is accepted.
After that, who will be responsible for putting it right?
What obstacles will they face?
v Politicians will have to please those who put them in power and cannot act independently of this power base, no matter how necessary a departure may be. It would be political suicide to do anything else -a consequence of democracy.
v Politicians or Monetary Officials likewise will have to ensure they act in the interests of their nation even if it goes against the greater good of the international community.
v The international pecking order will weigh in to give priority to measures put forward by the most powerful. The battle will likely impact the voting rights in the I.M.F. where the 16.83% of the U.S. -the I.M.F. needs an 85% vote to pass any measure-will come under fire and China will be given a share of the voting commensurate with its growing economic power.
v All of the above has to be decided before China's request for a new global reserve currency can even be contemplated.
v A new global reserve currency would require either the diminishing of the dollar's role in the global economy or its removal as its sole reserve currency.
The obstacles will prevent the much-needed structural monetary reform. Are the current powers-that-be impartial enough or be franchised to formulate a globally reformed effective monetary system? Not yet, if we look back at the efforts of the U.S. Congress to cut their budget deficit.
What is next? History shows that willing change, when not forthcoming gives way to unwilling change! Unwilling change climbs out of wars or rupturing, destructive, crises that remove the above barriers and which license the powers-that-be to undertake needed, sweeping reforms.
Julian Phillips is a long time specialist analyst of the gold and silver markets and is the principal contributor to the Gold Forecaster -
Gold correction to continue near term but $2,000/oz "a real possibility in 2012"
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
-TDS's Bart Melek
TD Securities expects gold prices "to come within $2,000/oz territory in the coming months", but warns of lower industrial minerals prices.
RENO, NV -
TD Securities Bark Melek warns investors that "gold is set to continue its short-term correction after its stellar performance."
In recently published Commodities Trade Strategy research, Melek, TD's head of commodity strategy, writes, "Despite the very gold-favorable macroeconomic fundamentals and the bullish sentiment toward the yellow metal (especially retail investors), TDS expects the current correction to continue in the near-term."
"Reminiscent of silver after its parabolic rise, gold is set to continue its short term correction after its stellar performance-higher spec margins, a sharp jump in implied volatilities and more risk appetite the key catalysts," he predicted.
Melek observed that gold is down some $80/oz from recent highs and an additional $40-$60/oz downside move "is very possible given the recent trading history." Nonetheless, he remains "bullish on the yellow metal longer term, with prices expected to come within $2,000/oz territory in the coming months."
In his analysis, Melek noted the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has lifted margins on gold contracts "by a hefty 22% overnight."
"Higher margins mean that some investors will need higher cash positions, causing them to sell gold in order to comply with the new standard," he suggested. "At the very least, this is cooling off some of the gold euphoria in the market and could prompt some traders to take profits, just because they can."
"Memories of developments in the silver market earlier this year should also motivate profit taking," he added.
Meanwhile, Melek advised higher volumes could also prompt addition gold corrections. "Better equity markets and more risk appetite are also helping to move gold lower."
In his analysis, Melek suggested there are strong parallels to the silver market development of last April and today's gold situation. "The silver rally was almost entirely speculatively driven, and we saw a near doubling in silver initial margins, while silver cols moved much more. At the same time, the silver rally was much more pronounced in relative terms."
"The gold market is much more liquid and more widely held than silver," he noted. "It also has very favorable supply/demand fundamentals, which was not the case for silver at the time."
"As such, we do not expect an overly brutal correction in gold."
Meanwhile, with a quite poor economic outlook and no room to maneuver on the fiscal side, Melek advised "gold investors are starting to speculate that western world central banks may need to resort to ‘heroic' monetary actions to get their economies moving, including some form of monetization of government debt."
In light of the Fed's explicit statements that it will maintain low rates through mid-2012, coupled with the likelihood of further monetary stimulus now higher than previous thought, TDS is revising its gold forecast higher.
"This adjustment reflects our view that gold will act both as a safe haven asset and a story of value to offset the inflationary aspects of further easing," Melek explained. "Rising mining cost promoted us to lift the long-term gold price projection."
However, Melek cautioned that more industrial metals "should react in the opposite manner with the soft patch getting stickier as economic data flows continue to disappoint and push the global economy to the brink of a possible recession."
"Demand growth for industry metals will be slightly less robust under this scenario, pressuring prices slightly lower across the sector, leading us to revise our forecasts lower to reflect these developments," he advised.
-TDS's Bart Melek
TD Securities expects gold prices "to come within $2,000/oz territory in the coming months", but warns of lower industrial minerals prices.
RENO, NV -
TD Securities Bark Melek warns investors that "gold is set to continue its short-term correction after its stellar performance."
In recently published Commodities Trade Strategy research, Melek, TD's head of commodity strategy, writes, "Despite the very gold-favorable macroeconomic fundamentals and the bullish sentiment toward the yellow metal (especially retail investors), TDS expects the current correction to continue in the near-term."
"Reminiscent of silver after its parabolic rise, gold is set to continue its short term correction after its stellar performance-higher spec margins, a sharp jump in implied volatilities and more risk appetite the key catalysts," he predicted.
Melek observed that gold is down some $80/oz from recent highs and an additional $40-$60/oz downside move "is very possible given the recent trading history." Nonetheless, he remains "bullish on the yellow metal longer term, with prices expected to come within $2,000/oz territory in the coming months."
In his analysis, Melek noted the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has lifted margins on gold contracts "by a hefty 22% overnight."
"Higher margins mean that some investors will need higher cash positions, causing them to sell gold in order to comply with the new standard," he suggested. "At the very least, this is cooling off some of the gold euphoria in the market and could prompt some traders to take profits, just because they can."
"Memories of developments in the silver market earlier this year should also motivate profit taking," he added.
Meanwhile, Melek advised higher volumes could also prompt addition gold corrections. "Better equity markets and more risk appetite are also helping to move gold lower."
In his analysis, Melek suggested there are strong parallels to the silver market development of last April and today's gold situation. "The silver rally was almost entirely speculatively driven, and we saw a near doubling in silver initial margins, while silver cols moved much more. At the same time, the silver rally was much more pronounced in relative terms."
"The gold market is much more liquid and more widely held than silver," he noted. "It also has very favorable supply/demand fundamentals, which was not the case for silver at the time."
"As such, we do not expect an overly brutal correction in gold."
Meanwhile, with a quite poor economic outlook and no room to maneuver on the fiscal side, Melek advised "gold investors are starting to speculate that western world central banks may need to resort to ‘heroic' monetary actions to get their economies moving, including some form of monetization of government debt."
In light of the Fed's explicit statements that it will maintain low rates through mid-2012, coupled with the likelihood of further monetary stimulus now higher than previous thought, TDS is revising its gold forecast higher.
"This adjustment reflects our view that gold will act both as a safe haven asset and a story of value to offset the inflationary aspects of further easing," Melek explained. "Rising mining cost promoted us to lift the long-term gold price projection."
However, Melek cautioned that more industrial metals "should react in the opposite manner with the soft patch getting stickier as economic data flows continue to disappoint and push the global economy to the brink of a possible recession."
"Demand growth for industry metals will be slightly less robust under this scenario, pressuring prices slightly lower across the sector, leading us to revise our forecasts lower to reflect these developments," he advised.
Friday 12 August 2011
Yesterday a small technical rebound is really not a good sign in share market. Base on world share market, money is flowing out from share market to gold! Gold price just hits USD1,800 per oz and just in less than 2 week Gold price up USD100 5.88% it was better that in FD.
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
Yesterday a small technical rebound is really not a good sign in share market. Base on world share market, money is flowing out from share market to gold! Gold price just hits USD1,800 per oz and just in less than 2 week Gold price up USD100 5.88% it was better that in FD.
Base on the FBM KLCI index yesterday, it show that investor is not going to invest more in share even the price had deep more than 10% and I think this event will continues for a week till US government do something about it.
Yesterday a small technical rebound is really not a good sign in share market. Base on world share market, money is flowing out from share market to gold! Gold price just hits USD1,800 per oz and just in less than 2 week Gold price up USD100 5.88% it was better that in FD.
Base on the FBM KLCI index yesterday, it show that investor is not going to invest more in share even the price had deep more than 10% and I think this event will continues for a week till US government do something about it.
Thursday 11 August 2011
GOLD IS SHINING (KILAUAN EMAS)
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
As for the gold market itself, , "Everything right now looks very supportive of gold". Not only is there a significant risk aversion move at play but, in places like India and China, there is a strong move toward gold as an inflation hedge.
The risk aversion market is now global - everybody is buying gold and with restrictions in other currencies, gold demand is very well supported. And, as we've seen with emerging markets, the allotment of gold in their reserve asset base is very low with respect to western economies so just as a pure diversification we can see a lot of gold moving from west to east, but right now it doesn't appear that the central banks want to sell gold - if anything, that they're net buyers
As for the gold market itself, , "Everything right now looks very supportive of gold". Not only is there a significant risk aversion move at play but, in places like India and China, there is a strong move toward gold as an inflation hedge.
The risk aversion market is now global - everybody is buying gold and with restrictions in other currencies, gold demand is very well supported. And, as we've seen with emerging markets, the allotment of gold in their reserve asset base is very low with respect to western economies so just as a pure diversification we can see a lot of gold moving from west to east, but right now it doesn't appear that the central banks want to sell gold - if anything, that they're net buyers
Tuesday 9 August 2011
Top NEWS: StockMarket Collapsed Gold Soars
Maklumat yang terkandung di sini telah diperolehi daripada sumber-sumber yang dipercayai boleh dipercayai, tetapi tidak ada jaminan kepada kesempurnaan atau ketepatan. Setiap pendapat yang dinyatakan di sini adalah kenyataan pertimbangan kami pada tarikh ini dan tertakluk kepada perubahan tanpa notis.
Markets collapse, silver static, platinum falls below gold.
Gold has soared ahead of the platinum price for the first time in over a decade, while silver has stuttered. Where do we go from here?
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 09 Aug 2011
LONDON -
Realisation has dawned, not before time, on the investment community and the general population, that the global financial problems are, indeed, serious and gold appears to have been the major beneficiary to date. Interestingly, other precious metals have not moved up alongside gold, as has tended to be the norm - indeed they have either fallen back or stuttered. But if one looks at demand for these other precious metals this is not really surprising. Indeed, it is surprising that they have not fallen back as much as might have been expected under the circumstances, particularly in the case of silver.
The reason for this, of course, relates to the degree of industrial usage in the demand for the precious metals. Gold's industrial usage is relatively small in relation to its industrial demand. Silver demand is perhaps relatively evenly divided between investment and industrial use, while platinum and palladium have a far stronger industrial element in their demand. And, given that much of the economic uncertainty revolves around fears that U.S. and Western economies may not be recovering as expected, while there are some doubts expressed over Chinese growth being maintained at recent levels, the moves by the precious metals begin to make sense.
The doomsayers have been predicting another market collapse for some months now and found it difficult to understand what seemed to be climbing stock prices in the face of what they saw as an obvious financial meltdown brewing. The gold bulls have been predicting the rise in price - but the speed of the increase in the past couple of weeks will have taken many of even the ardent bulls by surprise.
But then the silver bulls have been looking for an even sharper increase in their favourite metal, but it hasn't happened - yet!
One has to learn from 2008 though when worries then about global recovery sent stocks crashing - and industrial commodities - and related mining stocks - were amongst the worst hit of all. So far this time, one could say that silver, in particular, which suffered really badly in 2008 falling from over $20 at peak to around $8 at its nadir, has actually performed pretty well by comparison. This could bode particularly well for its future once the market falls are over, assuming it can maintain its position. To a great extent the silver price consolidation is almost certainly because of continuing strong investment demand from the Near and Far East, which was not quite so apparent three years ago
But the portents for the markets do not necessarily look good at the moment. If we draw parallels with2008/9, markets fell around 50% from peak to bottom and if this pattern repeats there's an awfully long way down to go yet and virtually all kinds of stocks and commodity prices could be hit again too - even relating to those which are considered safe havens like gold. Putting such parallels in place, the S&P could fall to around 675 and the FTSE to 3000. Very worrying statistics for market investors!
But before gold stocks investors start patting themselves on the back for selecting the ultimate safe haven, it is worth noting that gold itself fell around 30% and the Amex Gold Bugs Index - the HUI - fell more than 60%, although both recovered far faster than other market sectors. Gold for example regained its losses in about 4 months, while the S&P at its recent high point still remained well below its 2007/2008 peaks.
But maybe things will be different for precious metals this time. The big problem though is that if markets continue falling, potentially strong sectors, like gold and gold stocks, need to be sold off to cover losses elsewhere - hence everything can fall back, and probably will. Juniors become particularly vulnerable as sources of finance tend to dry up.
What the precious metals investor may have learnt from 2008 though is that the market collapse then created some enormous buying opportunities. In the three years since 2008 fortunes were made in carefully picked gold stocks and the same could happen again. The problem here is to get back in at, or near, the bottom and that may not be for a couple of months yet and stocks could fall a long way in the meantime.
On the other hand, markets are fickle. They are falling at the moment because investor confidence has diminished dramatically - not necessarily because companies are doing any worse. Indeed gold producers at the moment should be making record profits given current prices and they find it hard to understand why their stocks are falling too. The gold majors should be the safest options but these have all also come back between 5 and 10% in the past few weeks - even Newmont which has promised to tie dividends to the gold price and thus promises increased yields for investors. The falls here are not nearly as bad though, as say major banks. Bank of America for example has fallen more than 30% in the past few days.
A change in sentiment though will see markets recover, but now no-one believes politicians' attempts to talk up the economy. The U.S. in particular, shot itself in the foot over the debt ceiling wrangles and this, taken in conjunction with the Eurozone debt problems and the S&P downgrade, was probably the straw that broke the camel's back. It may take some time yet for investor confidence to recover.
But what about the other main ‘precious' metals - silver, platinum and palladium. In 2008 silver plunged around 60%, platinum around 65% and palladium around 70%. Horrendous figures for investors at the time. This time around - again assuming a parallel crash to that of 2008, there is a chance that similar plunges will not occur - at least perhaps not to the same magnitude. Gold is a great deal higher now and there has always been an element of the other precious metals moving in conjunction. As noted above, silver has become much more of an investment metal in its own right - particularly as gold has become too expensive for the smaller investor to purchase and they are finding an outlet in silver which perhaps was not there three years ago. The fact that platinum is currently selling at around below the gold price - a situation that has not tended to persist for long in the past - may lend some support here too and palladium may well move in concert. The suggestion here is that either gold is due a fall from its current heights, or platinum may pick up a little.
The situation is certainly interesting and will tax the thoughts of those looking to protect what they have. To this observer the gold price at current levels may be a little vulnerable to profit taking, while there may be a flight to cash as investment professionals seek to try and buy time until they have a better handle on which way markets will move. Uncertain times!
Markets collapse, silver static, platinum falls below gold.
Gold has soared ahead of the platinum price for the first time in over a decade, while silver has stuttered. Where do we go from here?
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 09 Aug 2011
LONDON -
Realisation has dawned, not before time, on the investment community and the general population, that the global financial problems are, indeed, serious and gold appears to have been the major beneficiary to date. Interestingly, other precious metals have not moved up alongside gold, as has tended to be the norm - indeed they have either fallen back or stuttered. But if one looks at demand for these other precious metals this is not really surprising. Indeed, it is surprising that they have not fallen back as much as might have been expected under the circumstances, particularly in the case of silver.
The reason for this, of course, relates to the degree of industrial usage in the demand for the precious metals. Gold's industrial usage is relatively small in relation to its industrial demand. Silver demand is perhaps relatively evenly divided between investment and industrial use, while platinum and palladium have a far stronger industrial element in their demand. And, given that much of the economic uncertainty revolves around fears that U.S. and Western economies may not be recovering as expected, while there are some doubts expressed over Chinese growth being maintained at recent levels, the moves by the precious metals begin to make sense.
The doomsayers have been predicting another market collapse for some months now and found it difficult to understand what seemed to be climbing stock prices in the face of what they saw as an obvious financial meltdown brewing. The gold bulls have been predicting the rise in price - but the speed of the increase in the past couple of weeks will have taken many of even the ardent bulls by surprise.
But then the silver bulls have been looking for an even sharper increase in their favourite metal, but it hasn't happened - yet!
One has to learn from 2008 though when worries then about global recovery sent stocks crashing - and industrial commodities - and related mining stocks - were amongst the worst hit of all. So far this time, one could say that silver, in particular, which suffered really badly in 2008 falling from over $20 at peak to around $8 at its nadir, has actually performed pretty well by comparison. This could bode particularly well for its future once the market falls are over, assuming it can maintain its position. To a great extent the silver price consolidation is almost certainly because of continuing strong investment demand from the Near and Far East, which was not quite so apparent three years ago
But the portents for the markets do not necessarily look good at the moment. If we draw parallels with2008/9, markets fell around 50% from peak to bottom and if this pattern repeats there's an awfully long way down to go yet and virtually all kinds of stocks and commodity prices could be hit again too - even relating to those which are considered safe havens like gold. Putting such parallels in place, the S&P could fall to around 675 and the FTSE to 3000. Very worrying statistics for market investors!
But before gold stocks investors start patting themselves on the back for selecting the ultimate safe haven, it is worth noting that gold itself fell around 30% and the Amex Gold Bugs Index - the HUI - fell more than 60%, although both recovered far faster than other market sectors. Gold for example regained its losses in about 4 months, while the S&P at its recent high point still remained well below its 2007/2008 peaks.
But maybe things will be different for precious metals this time. The big problem though is that if markets continue falling, potentially strong sectors, like gold and gold stocks, need to be sold off to cover losses elsewhere - hence everything can fall back, and probably will. Juniors become particularly vulnerable as sources of finance tend to dry up.
What the precious metals investor may have learnt from 2008 though is that the market collapse then created some enormous buying opportunities. In the three years since 2008 fortunes were made in carefully picked gold stocks and the same could happen again. The problem here is to get back in at, or near, the bottom and that may not be for a couple of months yet and stocks could fall a long way in the meantime.
On the other hand, markets are fickle. They are falling at the moment because investor confidence has diminished dramatically - not necessarily because companies are doing any worse. Indeed gold producers at the moment should be making record profits given current prices and they find it hard to understand why their stocks are falling too. The gold majors should be the safest options but these have all also come back between 5 and 10% in the past few weeks - even Newmont which has promised to tie dividends to the gold price and thus promises increased yields for investors. The falls here are not nearly as bad though, as say major banks. Bank of America for example has fallen more than 30% in the past few days.
A change in sentiment though will see markets recover, but now no-one believes politicians' attempts to talk up the economy. The U.S. in particular, shot itself in the foot over the debt ceiling wrangles and this, taken in conjunction with the Eurozone debt problems and the S&P downgrade, was probably the straw that broke the camel's back. It may take some time yet for investor confidence to recover.
But what about the other main ‘precious' metals - silver, platinum and palladium. In 2008 silver plunged around 60%, platinum around 65% and palladium around 70%. Horrendous figures for investors at the time. This time around - again assuming a parallel crash to that of 2008, there is a chance that similar plunges will not occur - at least perhaps not to the same magnitude. Gold is a great deal higher now and there has always been an element of the other precious metals moving in conjunction. As noted above, silver has become much more of an investment metal in its own right - particularly as gold has become too expensive for the smaller investor to purchase and they are finding an outlet in silver which perhaps was not there three years ago. The fact that platinum is currently selling at around below the gold price - a situation that has not tended to persist for long in the past - may lend some support here too and palladium may well move in concert. The suggestion here is that either gold is due a fall from its current heights, or platinum may pick up a little.
The situation is certainly interesting and will tax the thoughts of those looking to protect what they have. To this observer the gold price at current levels may be a little vulnerable to profit taking, while there may be a flight to cash as investment professionals seek to try and buy time until they have a better handle on which way markets will move. Uncertain times!
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